> Swine fever, 3 new cases every two sick

Are the conclusions of a study of the Preparedness Modeling Unit of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Cdc), the americans, published in the journal Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses’

The relationship is, in fact, of 1.5 new infections per infection. The first case of influenza A – remind the experts – has been registered to The Glora, in the mexican state of Veracruz, in the beginning of march. From lì, the H1N1 virus is; moved to the Cityà of Mexico, and later throughout the world.

According to the latest data of the world Organization of the sanità (the Who), currently it is arrived to almost 210 thousand cases, with more than 2.180 dead.

And these numbers are understated, as it admits the Who. The authors of the survey have focused on outbreaks that occurred in the capital of Mexico from 15 April to 25 April, to detect the rate of transmission of the virus among men.

The data on the sick and on people who came in contact with them, were crossed with those of the onset of symptoms and hospitalizations.

Well, according to their findings, the H1N1 virus would be spreading at a pace comparable with those recorded during the influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968 and on the occasion of the outbreak of Sars in 2003.

Nathaniel Hupert, co-director of the Cornell University and head of the Preparedness Modeling Unit of the Cdc, “this virus begins to spread within one or two days from the infection”.

But according to Dean Blumberg, a pediatrician at the University of California, thereò means that we can be calm: “if each infected person infects less than one other person, the virus probably scomparirà. If the estimate had been of two people, the situation would have been different.

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not To mention if it was 10: we were in front of an epidemic explosive”. For the 1918 pandemic, for example, the estimate was 2.5, while the seasonal flu is around 1.3.

the Page was published on August 31, 2009